Milwaukee Bucks vs Miami Heat Game 4 Betting Picks, Predictions, Odds & Lines

The Heat will host the Bucks on Saturday afternoon as they try to avoid the sweep in Game 3 of the first round of the playoffs. The Bucks have been dominant in the series so far, especially in the last two matchups. They won those two games by a combined margin of 63 points. The Bucks now sit at 49-26 overall record while going 34-41 against the spread. After the overtime loss in Game 1, the Heat looked lost for the better part of the last two contests. They have failed to replicate their form from the regular season which they finished on a 9-3 run. They’re now 40-35 SU for the campaign and 35-38-2 ATS. Miami has now won only once in the 6 games vs Milwaukee this season.

Line Movement

The line on the Bucks is now at -4.5. The total is at 221.5, a slight drop from the opening 222.5.

Notes on Milwaukee Bucks

Similar to Game 2, the Bucks came out flying in Game 3 leading by 12 after the 1st quarter. Again, they managed to lock down Butler and Adebayo and forced other players to beat them. Thanks to their advantage in length and athleticism, Milwaukee played suffocating defense, allowing the Heat only 37.6% from the field and a miserable 28.1% for three. It’s welcomed improvement over their performances in the regular season. While they led the league on offense, the Bucks struggled on the defensive end throughout the year. The acquisitions of Jrue Holiday and PJ Tucker are finally paying off as both of them are dominating defensively. The potential issue may be an injury to their second-best perimeter defender Donte DiVincenzo. The young guard got injured in Game 3 and will miss the rest of the postseason. The Milwaukee team seems deep enough to handle his absence tonight, but it may cause problems down the road.

Other than DiVincenzo, the only other injury worry is Giannis who’s listed as questionable. Still, according to the latest reports, he will play.

Notes on Miami Heat

The Heat find themselves 3-0 down and will try to regroup tonight and keep this series alive. So far, they looked outmatched and outclassed. They’ve been having issues on both ends of the court. The shooting just isn’t there and, unlike last year, Butler, Dragic, and Herro are not hitting shots. The Bucks’ strategy of packing the paint and daring Miami to beat them with the jumpers has worked perfectly. On defense, the Heat is running into all sorts of matchup problems. Last year, they had Jae Crowder who did a pretty good job containing Giannis. They’re trying to replicate the same this year with Ariza. But, the experienced wing just isn’t strong enough to hold his own against the still reigning MVP. They tried putting Adebayo on Giannis, but that created a new problem of guarding Brook Lopez. Also, they’re losing the battle on the perimeter against Holiday and Middleton. If they don’t shore up their defense and start hitting some shots, the Heat are in for a quick exit.

The only name on the injury list for Miami is Victor Oladipo.

Betting Pick: Milwaukee -4.5

Miami’s backs are against the well and expect them to put up a good fight tonight. However, it’s hard to see them keeping up with the Bucks who are firing on all cylinders. Milwaukee will be extremely motivated to sweep Miami and get their revenge for last year. With Brooklyn likely to come next, they’ll look to finish the series and get as much rest as possible.