Philadelphia Phillies vs. Atlanta Braves Picks, Predictions, Odds & Lines

On Tuesday, September 28, 2021, the Philadelphia Phillies and Atlanta Braves will play a three-game series at Truist Park in Atlanta, so we’ve generated the best betting pick for this NL East battle with the first pitch set for 7:20 PM ET.

Philadelphia Phillies vs. Atlanta Braves Odds & Line Movement

The stakes are huge in this matchup, as the race for the division title is on. The Phillies are an +107 road underdog for Tuesday’s opener, trailing the Braves by two and a half games. With a total of 8.0 runs, Atlanta is a -117 moneyline favorite with a run differential of -125.

Notes On The Philadelphia Phillies

 

The Philadelphia Phillies are still looking for the Braves, and this series is a must-win situation for them. They suffered a 6-0 home defeat to the poor Pittsburgh Pirates on Sunday, ending their five-game winning streak.

The Phillies have won nine of their past ten games, with a 3.90 ERA, 1.21 WHIP, and .227 batting average against during that time. They’ve scored 67 runs while hitting 30 extra-base hits and driving in 16 home runs during that stretch.

Zack Wheeler will pitch on Tuesday. He has not allowed a run in his last four starts. In those games, he pitched 23.2 innings and gave up .573 OPS to the other team. In 31 starts this season, Wheeler is 14-9 with a 2.79 ERA and 1.02 WHIP.

Notes On The Atlanta Braves

The Atlanta Braves won Sunday’s 4-3 encounter with the San Diego Padres. They concluded a ten-game road trip with a 7-3 record after sweeping a three-game set at Petco Park in San Diego. The Braves have won seven of their previous eight games to remain atop the NL East standings.

In the course of its past 12 games as a team, Atlanta has scored 62 runs and recorded a respectable .264/.312/.452 slash line. The Braves have posted a solid 3.12 ERA, 1.11 WHIP, and .212 batting average against this season.

Tuesday’s starter will be Orlando Arcia, and he’s 1-2 with a 3.19 ERA in five starts versus the Phillies this year. In 31 starts this season, the 37-year-old righty is 13-6 with a 3.53 ERA and 1.07 WHIP. Over his four previous September appearances, Morton has a 3.60 ERA and 3.12 FIP in 25 innings of work, allowing a .572 OPS to opponents.

Pick & Prediction: Atlanta Braves ( -117)

I’m not sure what to expect in the second game of this series. Both starting pitchers have been excellent lately, especially Zack Wheeler, and with everything on the line, this match might swing either way.

I lean the hosts because of their bullpen, which has posted a sparkling 2.04 ERA in the last few weeks. The Phillies’ bullpen, on the other hand, has posted a 4.73 ERA and 5.40 FIP over that stretch.

The Phillies are batting .253/.317/.358 in 165 at-bats against Charlie Morton this season. The present Braves, on the other hand, are slashing .198/.241/.285 in 171 at-bats versus Zack Wheeler, suggesting that the starting pitchers will win this battle.

Give me the under on the totals, to which I’ve already made reference. The Braves’ bullpen has been excellent recently, but the Phillies’ relievers are always a worry for under bettors.The Over is 9-2 in its last 11 games between the Phillies and Braves, including eight of Atlanta’s previous thirteen games.