NBA Finals Betting Picks, Predictions,Odds & Lines For Game 4

Just a couple of days ago, it seemed that the Suns are well on the way to their first NBA Championship. However, after a convincing win in Game 3, the Bucks now have momentum on their side. On Wednesday night, they’ll look to level the series in front of their own fans. The Bucks are on a fantastic  NBA final betting home streak at the moment, going 16-1 straight up in the last 17 games in Milwaukee. Their overall season record is now at 59-33 SU and 43-49 ATS. The Suns will try to bounce back after a poor performance on Sunday and take the 3-1 lead back to Phoenix. They’ve been on fire throughout this postseason and Game 3 was only the second time they failed to cover the spread in the last 8 games. The Suns now hold a 65-26 straight-up record over the whole campaign. Against the spread, they’re 55-34-2. The Sunday game also marked the first win for the Bucks in 5 matchups between the two this year.

Line Movement

The opening lines for Game 4 favored the Bucks by -3.5. With most of the action going their way, the line has moved up a bit since the release. Right now, it’s at -4 or -4.5, depending on a bookie. So far in the series, the favored team covered the spread in each of the three games. The total stands at 220.5 after opening at 220.

Notes on Phoenix Suns

On Sunday, the Suns produced probably the worst performance we saw from them this postseason. They faced issues on both ends of the court. Once again, struggled to contain Giannis Antetokounmpo and allowed the Bucks to dominate the paint. The Suns were outrebounded 36-47 including 13 offensive boards for Milwaukee resulting in 20 second-chance points. Not much different from Game 2, but this time, their offense and shooting also let them down. After hitting 20 threes in the previous matchup, the Suns went only 9-31 from the deep. Devin Booker just couldn’t get going and shot 3-14 from the field, sitting out the final quarter. His backcourt partner, Chris Paul, was the leading scorer with just 19 points. Another reason for the poor performance was the early foul trouble for Deandre Ayton. Even though he finished with 18 points and 9 rebounds, the young center missed a huge chunk of the game, playing only 24 minutes. Without him on the court, the Suns simply have no answer for Milwaukee’s inside game.

Dario Saric continues to be the only unavailable player for the Suns.

Notes on Milwaukee Bucks

As the Finals progress, the Bucks keep getting better. After a solid showing in Game 2, they finally got their first win on Sunday, mostly thanks to another otherworldly performance by Giannis Anetetokounmpo. The Greek Freak had a second consecutive 40-points game. He scored 41, while adding 13 rebounds and 6 assists. Giannis also continued to improve from the FT line, going more than decent 13-17. Unlike last game, on Sunday ha also had some proper support. Jrue Holiday went for 21 points, shooting 50% from beyond the arc. Middleton added 18 but also provided a valuable contribution on defense. He had Devin Booker in his pocket for the better part of the game, limiting the Suns’ best player to only 10 points.

Other than Donte DiVincenzo who’s out for the season, the Bucks have a clean bill of health.

Betting Pick: The Suns +4

While the Bucks have swung the momentum in the NBA finals betting series, we can’t expect another poor performance from the Suns. They’ve shown the ability to bounce back and responded well to losses so far in this postseason. If Ayton manages to stay out of the foul trouble and Booker starts hitting some shots, the Suns have more than a fighting chance. The Bucks are still favorites but we expect a close game and are more than happy to back the Suns at +4.